Making Sense of COVID-19

Super-transmitters Makes Sense

I just got back from visiting relatives in Missouri. It was a fun trip but very busy. I fished a couple days with my cousin Jimmy, celebrated my sister’s birthday, and baptized my newest great-great-nephew. Whenever my wife and I return to the Midwest, it is mandatory to eat at least one pork tenderloin sandwich, one fried catfish on a hoagie bun, and some deep-fried okra. My uncle used to claim our family would starve to death if we lost our deep-frier. We went to the local church on Sunday. They have only missed one service during the pandemic when the pastor’s daughter had the virus, and he was in quarantine. Missouri has no mask mandate and few in the congregation wore face coverings. The same was true for restaurants. When customers came in wearing masks, the waitress would don one while waiting on that table. Otherwise, no-one seemed to worry about COVID-19 protocol. I checked Google and found their rate of virus about the same as we have in Washington State where we have been locked down for over a year. Thus, I was surprised to return home to the panic of an outbreak in our village. I am still trying to find a scenario that makes sense.

I watched the story on CBS a couple months ago comparing locked down California with Florida where masks and social distancing is optional. The report revealed no significant difference in COVID-19 rates. Our cabin on the Pend Oreille River is right on the Washington/Idaho border. Masks and social distancing are strictly enforced in Newport, Washington while few wear face coverings in Old Town, Idaho. The virus rate is almost exactly the same. Michigan’s governor, Gretchen Whitmer, is back in the news demanding return of her emergency powers, but she had to admit that her mask and travel mandates have not worked. Nothing makes sense unless the experts admit that no two people are the same.

Consider the case of Mary Mallon. Mary worked as a cook for eight successive families between 1900 and 1907 and infected at least 53 family members with typhoid while showing no symptoms herself. Researchers finally determined that some people were carriers of the disease even tough they didn’t get sick. Other people seemed to be immune to typhoid even when repeatedly exposed.

Suppose a similar phenomenon is true with COVID-19? Under this scenario, there would be a continuum of the degree that anyone transmits the virus to others. At one extreme, there would-be modern-day Typhoid Marys who spread the disease despite mask and social distancing protocols. Brief exposure to one of these super-transmitters would cause local surges. On the other end of the spectrum would be those who are sick with the virus but don’t spread it to others. In the middle are those who show varying symptoms but only transmit the disease through continued close contact. The degree to which individuals are suspectable to contracting the virus would also vary. Some people are gong to be immune while others are going to become infected even though they do exactly as Dr. Fauci says they should. The rest of the population would be somewhere between.

Comparison of COVID-19 to the findings of the researchers of typhoid contagion makes sense to me. Those of us who live in states controlled by politicians who advocate government controls as the answer to anything confronting society will suffer under lockdown mandates regardless of logic. Politicians who admit they were wrong don’t get re-elected.

Frank Watson is a retired Air Force Colonel and long-time resident of Eastern Washington. He has been a free-lance columnist for over 20 years.